Does the NFL Still Reign Supreme?

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Short on time? Check out the tl;dr at the bottom of this post.

We love sports. Well, “most” of us love sports, from a qualitative perspective. To be quantitative about it, 5 of 6 of us love sports (don’t worry, we still love you Camille).

Given that, we couldn’t pass up an opportunity to include a few sports-related questions in our inaugural survey of nearly 1,000 American Consumers that we plan to run quarterly (quick plug: feel free to reach out if you have any questions you are interested in including in the next round!)

In the survey, we asked a variety of questions to better understand each person’s viewing habits, relative level of entertainment value, and outlook on the future of each league. What we discovered was a bit surprising.

Fielding the survey at a unique point in the sports calendar when the NBA, MLB, NHL, and MLS are all active, but the NFL is not, we actively wondered – could any of the other major leagues usurp the NFL’s dominance?

If we asked that question to a Magic 8 Ball, the answer would likely be “Signs point to no”. Our study found that – even though no live NFL games had been played in roughly 4 months – the NFL still far outpaces other sports leagues in perceived entertainment value and fans believe it will stay that way into the future.

Entertainment Value vs. League Outlook

Additionally, our study found that – of the respondents that found each league entertaining, one-quarter to one-third of them are either casual fans who only watch sparingly, or non-fans who never watch!

  • 25% are either casual or non-fans of the NBA

  • 26% are either casual or non-fans of the MLB

  • 32% are either casual or non-fans of the NHL

  • 32% are either casual or non-fans of the MLS

This indicates to us that there is a large market of untapped fans waiting to be further engaged, who may be held back by a variety of factors:

  • Gatekeeping / Availability: with the exclusivity rights demanded by partner networks like ESPN, Turner, and RSNs most are required to have a cable subscription to a) watch the national games that matter and b) watch their local team. Combined with plummeting subscription numbers and contractual broadcasting conflicts, this poses an access problem for many fans.

  • Too Many Games: coming in at a whopping 162 games per year, the MLB leads all leagues by nearly double, while the NBA & NHL each have 82 games. While this number ensures that games are available nearly any day a fan might want to engage, it likely erodes the value of any single game for many fans. Meanwhile, the NFL has only 17 games prior to the playoffs, making each game far more important, and thus more compelling.

  • Lack of Alternative Engagement: as noted in the clip above, many NFL fans engage with the product in tangential ways – e.g., fantasy sports, gambling, and alternative broadcasts like the Manning Cast. While the NBA & other leagues are also making pushes in that direction, the challenge is much greater given the number of games. Apart from decreasing the number of games, other leagues may want to consider finding ways to simplify their fantasy sports offerings and/or further consolidate viewership around specific days/nights of the week to drive interest and the sense of belonging that comes from a shared experience.

However, these are just some initial thoughts and to truly address the gap between perceived entertainment value and fandom, more research should be conducted to discover who represents this untapped market and which factors – either within the set above or beyond it – are holding them back.

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The NFL still holds a position of dominance among sports fans. Some strategies other leagues should consider are to reduce the number of games in a season, make games more accessible, and invest in alternative programming to engage more viewers.

For more information, please reach out to us at info@tldr-insights.com. We’re always happy to share our experience and help you think through challenging scenarios.